ASIAN ECONOMIC, East Asian growth is on track to meet April forecasts of 6.0% in 2018 and 5.8% in 2019. The People’s Republic of China is still expected to grow by 6.6% in 2018 before moderating to 6.4% in 2019. South Asia remains the fastest expanding subregion, with growth projected at 7.0% in 2018 and 7.2% in 2019. India is expected to achieve April forecasts of 7.3% in 2018 and 7.6% in 2019 as bank-strengthening bolsters private investment and benefits kick in from a new goods and services tax.
Southeast Asia continues to be buoyed by robust domestic demand, particularly for private consumption and investment. It is on track to meet forecasts of 5.2% growth this year and next.
Central Asia has performed better than expected, prompting growth projection upgrades to 4.2% for 2018 and 4.3% for 2019. The Pacific will likely realize earlier forecasts.
Despite rising commodity prices, domestic factors have kept consumer price pressures in check regionally, prompting downward revision to inflation forecasts from 2.9% to 2.8% for both years. As United States monetary policy normalizes, central banks in the region act to spare their currencies’ sharp depreciation and to subdue inflation.
Trade tariffs implemented so far in 2018 have not significantly dented buoyant flows, but ongoing friction remains a downside risk to the outlook for developing Asia. ● Source : IMF, 2017
